Fit To Print

Darling you’ve got to let me know

November 5th, 2006

House predictions:

The Democrats need a 15 seat shift to take back the House. We’re predicting a net gain of about 30 for them. A few of these seats are in red districts where a corrupt Republican resigned or is still running but bound to lose. These look like two-year pickups that will be lost again in 2008.

More promising are the Democratic areas where moderate Republicans are in danger, like a few of the races in New York and Pennsylvania. These are where more longterm changes could take place. If Democrats win a lot of those races and take forty or so seats back, it will have a lasting impact on the makeup of the House. Forty is a very real target. Most estimates predict between low twenties and high thirties.

Senate predictions (predicted winning party in parentheses):

AZ (R) - Pederson comes up just short.
CT (I) - Ned’s otherwise great campaign had a couple late missteps, and Joltin Joe will probably win, but it will be closer than polls indicate. If Ned loses, look out for a Lieberman defection. Again.
MD (D) - Steele ran a good campaign, but there are too many Dems in this state. Cardin wins.
MO (D) - Talent is the only other adept GOP candidate in the battleground states. Too bad McCaskill still beats him by a percent or two.
MT (D) - Tester by a hair. Or a buzz cut, if you will.
NJ (D) - Menendez fights off charges of corruption to win his first full term.
OH (D) - Sherrod is a good populist. DeWine is toast.
PA (D) - Santorum has no hope.
RI (D) - Chafee is a moderate saying don’t call me George. If he’s that hurt, he can become a Dem and try and recapture his seat in six years. He’s losing on Tuesday, albeit by a narrow margin.
TN (D) - Early voting surge and energized black base hand Ford the upset of the election. Conventional wisdom be damned.
VA (D) - George Allen stumbled, and when he did, Webb was there to provide voters with a good alternative. Yet another close victory for the Dems.

This would leave the Senate with a 52-48 Democratic majority, as both independents have promised to caucus with them. It could easily go 50-50, too. While the overall Democratic surge was stronger a couple weeks ago, there are a few Senate races Dems have evened up in that time (and some where they’ve lost ground but are still projected to win). Specifically, it seems MO and VA were won in the last weeks, while TN and MT may have been lost.

Entry Filed under: Uncategorized