Archive for November, 2008
It’s tough to get too bent out of shape over any particular Obama appointment so far. They all seem to be very bright, competent folks. There is probably the most concern on the left over the Hillary appointment, and Spencer Ackerman has a very good piece detailing why this could be a problem. But it is hard to single out any one choice and say this is categorically a baaad idea.
However, viewed in totality, there are a few troubling signs. Obama didn’t run as a progressive ideologue and those expecting a bleeding heart cabinet were sorely misguided. But progressives had a lot to do with Obama’s victory in the primary and in the general as well. At some point in the night, you need to dance with the girl that brought you. Which means progressives can’t be completely shut out of an Obama administration. And so far, his foreign policy team (Clinton and Gates) is markedly to the right of where a lot of his supporters are. Holder and Napolitano are pretty much in the “effective pragmatist” mold we keep hearing about — not exactly innovative government reformers. Geithner and Summers are smart, but certainly not progressive. The list goes on.
The problem for progressives is that they usually are locked out of the big government gigs. So it’s easy to say don’t appoint any lefties, because everyone will be mad, and they don’t have any experience running things, anyway. And to a certain extent, you want a steady, well-practiced hand in times of crisis. Additionally, you don’t want to expend political capital on appointments that are spit out by the Senate or ineffective once accepted.
This, however, is the same slippery slope Bill slid down. He worried about criticism he’d take (and did take) for picking progressives, and basically played it safe. So by the time he left office, he hadn’t really made any progress in terms of injecting liberals into the bloodstream of power. This isn’t even a question of dominating all areas of bureaucracy, it’s just a matter of giving the side that fucking won a seat at the table.
Dubya, of course, had the opposite problem. One of his enduring legacies will be all the young conservatives he stuffed the federal courts with, and all the ideologue hacks he tossed into various government bureaucracies. Obama can’t only hire “pragmatic centrists” who are going to worry about hurting feelings if they clean house and get rid of the folks who had no business holding those jobs in the first place. Pragmatic need not be a synonym for conventional.
Smarter men than I have noted that the key isn’t to keep from appearing too left wing or too weak or any of those things. The key is getting things done, which will involve pushing for institutional change and dramatic reforms, when necessary. If we have affordable health care and our troops home in four years, etc., voters will have no trouble reelecting progressives, or socialists, or pragmatists, or nihilists, or whatever god damn word we want to attach to the folks who work for a successful administration.
November 23rd, 2008
This is for everyone who thinks I’m too hard on John Edwards. This right here! I’ve always felt that John Edwards and Bill Clinton had more than a little used car salesman in them. Maybe every politician does. The only difference is, I’d probably still buy the car from Bill.
November 15th, 2008
Speculation over cabinet appointments isn’t especially useful. And lacking any real insider knowledge, most of my guesses on what’s going on behind the scenes are amateur speculation. Or wrong. Wrong would be another word for what they are. And yet I continue. I really like the idea of Clinton as Secretary of State.
The other top choices being floated around are Bill Richardson, John Kerry and Dick Lugar. The SecState needs to be well-liked (sorry, Kerry), and perceived as strong (sorry, Kerry) and competent (sorry, Bill). And we need to give some top foreign policy jobs to Dems, so we can kill this ridiculous “Dems are weak on foreign policy” meme. Which brings us to sorry, Lugar.
No one has ever accused Clinton of being weak. And while some worry that she is too hawkish on FP, she won’t really be pushing her own agenda as Sec. Remember, Colin Powell was significantly more moderate than the rest of the Bush Administration, and yet he was still willing to sell his soul make the case for war at the UN Security Council. Because the SecState serves at the leisure of the Prez and all that.
The real question is whether she’d want to give up her seat for it. I had originally thought no, but it seems like she’s farther away a leadership role in the Senate than she deserves to be, as having seniority in the Senate means you can remember voting for FDR’s wacky New Deal.
If she could stay and help run the Senate, that’d be swell. Because she’d be a hell of a lot better than an invertebrate Mormon, say. But if that’s not in the cards, this could be a good option. I think her acceptance is still contingent on this possibly being an 8-year stint, which it usually isn’t. Who wants to give up what is basically tenure in the Senate for a four-year wham bam thank you ma’am? So this means that she has to think Obama will do well enough to earn a second term and that she’ll do well enough to earn a second term. Chris Bowers calls it a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. And as everyone knows, Chris Bowers calls em like he sees em.
Offering her the job seems like a smart move by Obama. In a way, it’s more of a sign of respect than saying be my VP, because it’s not some political shotgun marriage, and the SOS actually has some responsibility (unlike VPS and those darned community organizers). It says, you’re smart, I’m smart, let’s DO this. Now it’s up to Hil if she wants to bide her time in the Senate or take on a new challenge. Either Obama gets a good SOS out of it, or he gets points for asking. Or I don’t know what I’m talking about.
And we can all laugh at how women can’t catch a break: You want to be president, and end up someone’s secretary instead.
November 15th, 2008
The fact that it is being widely reported that Kerry is making a big push for Sec’y of State probably means one of four things:
1) He’s just not that clever about these maneuvers. No one wants it known they are actively saying, “appoint me”.
2) The Obama Team is floating his name to see if the reaction is overwhelmingly negative or just kind of negative.
3) Kerry was promised the appointment in return for his primary endorsement and doesn’t want Obama to reneg.
4) He was asked if he would take the post and wanted to say, “it depends”, but that had already gotten him in trouble. So he just said “yes”.
I actually have a lot of admiration for Kerry, and I’m almost postive I’ll prefer him to whoever else might get the job. But my feeling is that appointing Kerry would expend more political capital than it’s worth. And that’s a shame. You gotta feel some sympathy for the guy. He can’t quietly jockey for power, he can’t win outside of Massachusetts, and he can’t tell a joke to save his life. These are pretty important abilities for most pols.
November 6th, 2008
It seemed overwhelmingly likely that Obama was going to win for some time, so while I was relieved on election day, I was also mildly disappointed about a few of the other results. I didn’t want to toss out some pessimistic post and ruin anyone’s post-election high. Fortunately, in the words of Jeffrey Lebowski, certain things have come to light, and given the nature of this new shit, I have a much better feeling about where we’re headed.
As per my Congressional Primer post, I still think the best looking issue — and coincidentally the most important issue — is energy reform. Between the Cousins Udall in NM and CO, Merkley in OR, Shaheen in NH and just maybe Franken Berry in MN (in fact, I’m gonna go ahead and predict he wins the recount, and I think it will also tighten in AK for Begich), there are a lot of green freshmen entering the Senate. I’ll let that ridiculous pun sink in and then point out that another huge development is taking place in the House.
Congressman Waxman is challenging Michigan Man John Dingell for chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee. Dingell is strongly sympathetic to the auto industry and has been mucking up climate change legislation and CAFE standards for years. He’s from Detroit, so it would be politically suicidal for him to do anything else. That is why we need to bring out the cane. Waxman is a complete badass, easily one of the best Congressmen in all the land. And there is no love lost between Dingell and Pelosi, so hopefully she’ll help oust him.
And if that weren’t enough, RFK Jr. is being mentioned as possible head of the EPA, the organization that in recent years censored its climate change reports and refused to let California raise emission standards. Robert is the best man I can think to turn this agency around. Obama has said that energy reform is his top priority after he takes steps to stabilize the economy, and so far I’m thinking he might be serious.
The bad news is that Obama looks to be taking a pretty middle of the road approach to the economy.
This is an oversimplification, but basically most of the economics guys who are going to be advising Obama or heading up the Treasury are the Clinton deregulators; Larry “Barefoot and Pregnant” Summers, Robert Rubin, and Tim Geithner. Now, these are all smart cats, and they have signaled that they understand the need for economic stimulus and oversight given the hole we’re in, blah blah blah. But it’s a shame that there won’t be more input from more left of center academics like Krugman and DeLong in an Obama administration. Krugman, of course, cooked his own goose by strongly criticizing Obama in the primary, and has indicated he doesn’t like advising politicians, anyway.
Really, it’s just a shame that there isn’t more ideological diversity among Obie’s economic advisors (with the notable exception of Warren Buffet). It could come from wherever, I don’t care.
Definitely a mixed bag here, but there are definitely some encouraging signs.
Update: I guess there is some opposition to RFK Jr. as head of the EPA or Sec of Interior in the scientific community, because he’s one of the people who is anti-vaccine, believing it causes autism, although there just isn’t much empirical evidence supporting that theory. This is where I feel stupid, because I really have no idea if he’s an unqualified ideologue, or this is an isolated case of bad judgment.
November 6th, 2008