Archive for January, 2009
SCHIP passed in the Senate on Thursday, and no trouble is expected in the House. I’m not sure John McCain would have vetoed the bill had he been elected (he wasn’t), but he did vote against it. In fact, only 9 Republican senators voted for it (Gregg was not one of them). That has to be the outside number we’re working with, in terms of hopeful crossovers, because if you won’t vote to give children health care, I’m not really sure what you will vote for.
Update: It also appears that the internet is stealing my lines.
January 31st, 2009
A lot of people have criticized efforts by Obama and the Democratic leadership to get bipartisan support for legislation. I think this is a mistaken critique. For instance, it is hard for me to think of a successful social movement that didn’t involve at some point a good-faith attempt to engage the other side in a dialog. There are a lot of people out there who disagree with Obama and Pelosi and Reid and those people should have their voices heard.
This doesn’t mean giving in to ridiculous demands. Pelosi said hey, if the Republicans have good ideas we’ll include them. That is about right. And I have no problem with occasionally making concessions to ensure support, so long as the integrity of a bill is not compromised.
But with that willingness to hug it out, there must also be an understanding of the situation we’re in (and if at all possible, that understanding should be expressed in passive voice). Our political system is antiquated, and specifically designed to make structural and systemic change difficult. And the latter part is not a bad idea, especially when Republicans have devoted decades to tearing apart social insurance programs like social security and medicare.
But uh, the time for change is now. And that is going to mean using any legal means necessary to achieve reform. Pass the health care bill under budget reconciliation. Not because you have to, because you can. Because if you only need 51 yeas you are going to get a better bill. And to hell with the idea that there are certain types of things that don’t belong in this stimulus bill, and should be saved for a more appropriate piece of legislation. If it is a good idea and won’t prevent the bill’s passage, include it. Now is not the time for worrying about setting a bad precedent for how bills are created and passed. Now, as mentioned earlier, is the time for change.
And if Republicans want to filibuster, let them actually go through with it. See who really wants to talk for ten hours at a time to keep EFCA from becoming law. And for God’s sake, make these things better when they go to conference committee. It’s not cheating, it’s what they’re for. It’s what the Republicans have done since they could eat solid foods. If we see procedural loopholes that allow the abuse of legislative power we can pass laws to close them, but let’s not let misguided notions about how an ideal system should work prevent us from getting things done.
Another for instance, Gregg reportedly wants a promise that he’ll be replaced by a Republican if he vacates his seat to join the cabinet. That’s not how it works, bubba. New Hampshire has been shedding Republicans like waterweight since he was last elected, so I don’t see how Gregg’s actual constituents are best served by appointing a member from the minority party in that state to take his place.
Bipartisanship doesn’t mean agreeing the Republicans’ framing of the rules and issues. And if it does mean that, then it’s a stupendously bad idea. But being considerate and being persistent don’t have to be mutually exclusive. We’re not talking about cognitive dissonance, here, we’re talking about what’s necessary. I don’t think Obama gets the fighting aspect of the yin yang deal all the time, but he does get the other half, when so many progressives out there do not.
January 31st, 2009
Ok, this is why I don’t do insta-analysis very often. Because my initial instinct is wrong so much of the time. Those who know better are saying a few things about the possible Gregg appointment. First off, Lynch is the type of governor who is very likely to either pick a Republican to replace Gregg, or choose some DINO. More likely, this is being floated to give Gregg a bargaining chip within his own party, so he has the political cover to vote for the stimulus. Which is troubling because it means they are worried they don’t have the votes.
And really, while the stimulus is far from uncontroversial, it is probably the least controversial big ticket item we’re gonna see. In other words, if there are only 59 or 60 votes for the stimulus, there probably aren’t 60 votes for card check, say. Because the controversy over the stimulus bill isn’t whether it’s needed or not, it’s whether the current bill, with all its imperfections, is still worth passing. Republicans have to at least pretend they want some sort of stimulus plan to pass.
This reminds me of an interesting point Matthew Yglesias made a while ago, that moderate Republicans in Congress just don’t have any power. I don’t think it has paid to be a moderate Republican since 93. Moderate political stances may be necessary to get elected in certain states and districts, but they don’t help one rise to power within the party.
The same doesn’t hold true for Democrats. Moderates basically control the Senate and certainly hold some important positions in the House. What’s more, the average moderate is given a lot of sway because when they threaten to split with the party on a vote, the leadership will do a lot to accomodate them and keep them in the fold.
The fallout of this is that Blue Dog coalitions get a lot of folks who are even more opportunistic than your average buffet platter of pols, because that’s where the money is. So while I may be prefer Evan Bayh and Claire McCaskill politically and ideologically to someone like Arlen Specter or Chuck Hagel, I think the case could be made that Hagel and Specter have been more principled public servants.
Now, these may seem nitpicky and as interesting as an old shoe, but this stuff does matter. We are entering a depression that is going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better. We need aggessive action on economic regulations and relief, climate change, health care reform and a reduction of military engagements and spending.
Bracketing my reservations for now, we have a president and a House who could conceivably achieve some of these goals. The Senate is where the rubber meets the road. We need 60 votes for bills, or we need to amend the cloture rule so that we only need 55. Or 51. And there are really only so many reasonable minds in the Senate. If Mitch McConnell is voting for a stimulus plan, it probably means there are too many unnecessary tax cuts and not enough investment in the good stuff. It probably means the bill is too small.
So there is a pretty narrow margin for error, here. And a lot of things will be important: rhetoric and behind the scenes maneuvering of the party leaders, budget reconciliation, conference committees, individual decisions to stay or break from the pack.
I’m all over the map here, so I think we’re gonna bring this sucker to a close. In sum, there’s a reason Barack has stopped smiling while giving speeches. Tough times ahead. And I don’t say that to be dramatic. Sometimes we have a tendency to look back on historical events and view them as inevitable.
But the Civil Rights Act of 1964 almost never got out of committee in the House. And it was filibustered for over 50 days in the Senate. It took clever rules manipulations, determined legislators, LBJ’s hard work, and pressure from civil rights activists to make it happen. And while there clearly seems to be a movement toward equality, democracy and sensibility over time in the course of human existence — things like climate change and home foreclosures are time sensitive. It’s not inevitable that the economy is going to bounce right back or that we will sequester enough carbon to stabilize the climate again.
The people in government are going to have to think long and hard about what kind of legacy they want to leave, how they wanted to be remembered 20 years from now. And everyone on the outside should think about it too. And probably do something. Yeah. That’s my new slogan. “Probably just do it.” Fuck Nike.
January 31st, 2009
The AP is reporting that NH senator Judd Gregg, a Republican, is high on the list of potential Secretary of Commerce nominees. It is rare, but not unheard of, for someone to leave the senate for a second tier cabinet position. Gregg, however, is up for election in 2 years in a state that Obama won by ten points. So maybe he sees the writing on the wall.
Obama can kill two birds here, answering calls for a more bipartisan cabinet, and also possibly adding that magical 60th Democratic senator, as the governor in New Hampshire is indeed a Dem. Obviously this part of the deal is not an afterthought, and is likely the primary calculus behind picking Gregg for the spot. And Gregg is a relatively moderate guy, with Commerce Sec being one of those unimportant posts that probably should be folded into another department.
I won’t believe this until I see it, because it certainly seems like Gregg would be taking a demotion, and one can only imagine what kind of threats the GOP leadership will make to keep him from abandoning ship.
I’m working on some broader posts about Obama and Congress, so I won’t get into this too much now, but I think this would be a great move. I think the only reason Obama didn’t try more of this is because he thought it would be hard to find takers. 60 Dems doesn’t guarantee anything, but it’s worth remembering that the stimulus bill just passed in the House with zero Republican votes. Having the option of busting up a filibuster with absolutely no Republican support would sure be nice, especially if Senate GOPers decide to be anywhere near as uncooperative as House conservatives.
January 30th, 2009