Fit To Print

It Gets a Little Preachy But There Are Cool Trivia Facts Toward the End

January 31st, 2009

Ok, this is why I don’t do insta-analysis very often. Because my initial instinct is wrong so much of the time. Those who know better are saying a few things about the possible Gregg appointment. First off, Lynch is the type of governor who is very likely to either pick a Republican to replace Gregg, or choose some DINO. More likely, this is being floated to give Gregg a bargaining chip within his own party, so he has the political cover to vote for the stimulus. Which is troubling because it means they are worried they don’t have the votes.

And really, while the stimulus is far from uncontroversial, it is probably the least controversial big ticket item we’re gonna see. In other words, if there are only 59 or 60 votes for the stimulus, there probably aren’t 60 votes for card check, say. Because the controversy over the stimulus bill isn’t whether it’s needed or not, it’s whether the current bill, with all its imperfections, is still worth passing. Republicans have to at least pretend they want some sort of stimulus plan to pass.

This reminds me of an interesting point Matthew Yglesias made a while ago, that moderate Republicans in Congress just don’t have any power. I don’t think it has paid to be a moderate Republican since 93. Moderate political stances may be necessary to get elected in certain states and districts, but they don’t help one rise to power within the party.

The same doesn’t hold true for Democrats. Moderates basically control the Senate and certainly hold some important positions in the House. What’s more, the average moderate is given a lot of sway because when they threaten to split with the party on a vote, the leadership will do a lot to accomodate them and keep them in the fold.

The fallout of this is that Blue Dog coalitions get a lot of folks who are even more opportunistic than your average buffet platter of pols, because that’s where the money is. So while I may be prefer Evan Bayh and Claire McCaskill politically and ideologically to someone like Arlen Specter or Chuck Hagel, I think the case could be made that Hagel and Specter have been more principled public servants.

Now, these may seem nitpicky and as interesting as an old shoe, but this stuff does matter. We are entering a depression that is going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better. We need aggessive action on economic regulations and relief, climate change, health care reform and a reduction of military engagements and spending.

Bracketing my reservations for now, we have a president and a House who could conceivably achieve some of these goals. The Senate is where the rubber meets the road. We need 60 votes for bills, or we need to amend the cloture rule so that we only need 55. Or 51. And there are really only so many reasonable minds in the Senate. If Mitch McConnell is voting for a stimulus plan, it probably means there are too many unnecessary tax cuts and not enough investment in the good stuff. It probably means the bill is too small.

So there is a pretty narrow margin for error, here. And a lot of things will be important: rhetoric and behind the scenes maneuvering of the party leaders, budget reconciliation, conference committees, individual decisions to stay or break from the pack.

I’m all over the map here, so I think we’re gonna bring this sucker to a close. In sum, there’s a reason Barack has stopped smiling while giving speeches. Tough times ahead. And I don’t say that to be dramatic. Sometimes we have a tendency to look back on historical events and view them as inevitable.

But the Civil Rights Act of 1964 almost never got out of committee in the House. And it was filibustered for over 50 days in the Senate. It took clever rules manipulations, determined legislators, LBJ’s hard work, and pressure from civil rights activists to make it happen. And while there clearly seems to be a movement toward equality, democracy and sensibility over time in the course of human existence — things like climate change and home foreclosures are time sensitive. It’s not inevitable that the economy is going to bounce right back or that we will sequester enough carbon to stabilize the climate again.

The people in government are going to have to think long and hard about what kind of legacy they want to leave, how they wanted to be remembered 20 years from now. And everyone on the outside should think about it too. And probably do something. Yeah. That’s my new slogan. “Probably just do it.” Fuck Nike.

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